Has the housing market reached a turning point? August 2018 Monthly Update

David ButlerBy David Butler in Monthly market update


There’s an eclectic mix of stories coming out of the property press at the moment. Most of it is just sensationalist nonsense from journalists trying to fill column inches in silly season (when there’s never much to write about because everyone is on holiday). But some of the most serious monthly research reports, however, are pretty positive.

– The Nationwide index –

The Nationwide building society has a lot of data on the housing market because of all the mortgages they sell. That’s why everyone interested in the housing market pricks up their ears when their monthly index comes out. You can read the full thing here, but here is our summary.
The Nationwide index reports that annual house price inflation across the UK stood at 2.5 per cent in July 2018, compared with 2 per cent last month. The overall average price of a home in the UK now sits at £217,010, which means prices have risen by a total of 189.1 per cent since 2000 (equivalent to £7,600 per year).
Looking just to the last month, prices are up 0.6 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. To put that in context, the average monthly change over the last 12 months was 0.2 per cent, so the latest performance is slightly stronger than in recent times. Even though Nationwide’s figures are seasonally adjusted, it’s best not to draw too many conclusions from monthly data.
Chart 1: Annual house price change (Nationwide)

Chart 2: Monthly house price change (Nationwide)

Chart 3: Overall average prices (Nationwide)

Regional annual house price change – May 17 vs May 18 (Land Registry)

– RICS word cloud –

Each month the RICS publishes a fantastic survey where it asks agents and surveyors what they think is happening in their local area. Here we’ve turned their comments into a word cloud where the size of each word represents how often its used in the survey. The idea is that you can get a quick glimpse into how the people on the ground are feeling about the housing market.

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